Fresh Similarweb data on LLM web traffic is out. At first glance, the trend looks bad for OpenAI: ChatGPT's share dropped from 87.2% to 68.0%, while Gemini grew more than threefold — from 5.4% to 18.2%.
But if you set the panic aside and look at the traffic structure, the picture is different.
1. ChatGPT's Audience Is Nearly a Billion Users
The drop in share is relative. In absolute numbers, OpenAI is setting records. People aren't abandoning ChatGPT for Google — the overall AI audience is simply growing.
2. Google Just Embedded Gemini Into All Its Products
The key number: 76% of Gemini's traffic comes directly from google.com. Users land there through AI Overviews in search or built-in Android tools. It's not a deliberate choice — it's consuming whatever the ecosystem puts in front of them.
3. People Choose ChatGPT Deliberately; Gemini Wins by Just Being There
Those looking for a solution to a specific problem tend to pick ChatGPT. Gemini wins in passive mode.
That said, it would be foolish to deny Google's progress. They've shipped genuinely strong products (NotebookLM) and excellent models (Gemini 3 Pro).
As they say in the Valley: "Google is not first, but Google is usually last standing."